For about a year & a half now, pundits & economists have been saying: “It’s a strong seller’s market, but a “Shift” is coming & buyers will be on top soon.” Then, when it doesn’t happen, they rinse & repeat. Eventually, they’re going to be right. NAR just published its quarterly market numbers & home prices are still at record highs, but guess what…it looks like a buyer’s market shift could happen at any time. 🙂 Here’s a link to NAR’s summary of the findings:
Over that same year & a half period, the signs of a shift have really been there & that a “Shift” really is inevitable. When interest rates skyrocketed, many buyers left the market, deciding to stay put in their homes for now or look for other options. That normally drives down home prices, as sellers would have to compete for buyers. Many buyers switched their target to rentals to wait out the purchase market volatility & flooded the rental market with it’s version of buyers…tenants, thereby driving up rents even higher too.
Sadly for buyers, enough buyers stayed on the hunt for a house, planning to re-fi the second rates start dropping, to keep intense competitive pressure on all the other buyers & force the purchase market prices to rise even more while they tried to beat each other’s offers. Basically, the market remained a seller & Landlord’s paradise & the shift never happened.
Political, economic & labor market chaos led to huge drunken lurches in the stock market & hugely gloomy outlooks for business futures, which led to a more volatile, but stronger bond market, which has a direct effect on increasing mortgage rates. The bond market has a really strong influence on mortgage rates, more so than the stock markets ever had. Until the underlying chaos in the political, economic & labor spheres settle into a more calm, routine, predictable marketplace, where companies & analysts can actually plan for the future, predictions on the future of interest rates are simply guesses.
The signs are out there, indicating a “Shift” from seller empowerment to a rising buyer-favoring market. It’s just not materializing On-Demand. My guess is it’s coming too. I have no idea when though. Honesty is the best policy. I simply don’t know. Once the business world becomes accustomed to the constantly shifting business environment, we’ll start seeing the “Shift” affect Real Estate transactions, in real time.
For educated thoughts & opinions on how to navigate the maelstrom that the Real Estate market is right now, consult your favorite Realtor. I & my fellow expert teammates at Brook Realty are always up for an informed discussion. We’re lovably geeky that way. 🙂 Call me. I’ll pick up the coffee.
Have Fun!
Lew McConkey, Realtor/Notary
Brook Realty, Serving Whitman Hanson & Surrounding Towns
(781)252-9789
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